RACING SYSTEMS - ADDITIONAL DATA NOW AVAILABLE
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Most racing followers will generally love or loathe the idea of following systems rather than a pure study of the horses past form, breeding etc.
My interest in systems goes back a long way, but essentially I have looked at factors which have affected results from what we would expect on pure form. Draw, first time blinkers, beaten favourites, course winners etc. Both UK & Irish racing is covered.
My top tip for anyone who wishes to follow any system is to record the results in an easy to follow format so you can clearly see if it is working or not for you. I have only seriously done that for the last ten years and aim to keep my statistics on a five year rolling basis in future.
The system results are recorded on a spreadsheet, using a level stake profit basis, based on SP's. By using 'Best Odds Guarantees' we should all be able to improve on this. I use 'open office' spread sheets and the operating programme for these can be downloaded free here.
Looking at the spreadsheets initially you may think 'this is rubbish' as there are loads of negative numbers in the columns (red column is always the grand total). What we must remember is that bookies take around a 15% profit margin so just breaking even is a positive. However, I recommend that users only follow the strong positive results in the tables - this should limit backable options to only a handful on most days. If you dip into a system infrequently you can be either very lucky or very unlucky as these results assume a 365 days a year cycle. As always only bet what you can afford to lose!
I shall continue to upload the updated spreadsheets monthly in 2024. Each system has its own tab and I shall briefly summarise how to use below (moving from left to right on the tabs):
LUCKY STALLS - One of the more frivolous systems! Where a race has been won at least 3 times by the same stall in the last 10 years. You will probably want to use a racing website that easily identifies past winning stalls - if you don't already have one I would recommend Irishracing.com Click on cards, select a race time, then scroll down to the bottom of the page for past results of the race you have selected. This website does not always record UK races prior to 2020 (lockdown year) for all races though!
TRAINER TRAITS - Please use the N&M Racing Club Trainer Traits web page for details of races where trainers have won at least 3 times in the last 10 years. Remember the Trainer Traits data is recorded on the date last run the year before. If easier you can again use Irishracing.com as detailed above. At some big meetings, such as Cheltenham, this system can throw up poor results. This is often because the top trainers can have multiple entries so even if they get a winner they can still show a level stake loss in the race. This website does not always record races prior to 2020 (lockdown year) for all races though!
JOCKEY TRAITS - Please use the N&M Racing Club Jockey Traits web page for details of races where jockeys have won at least 3 times in the last 10 years. Remember the Jockey Traits data is recorded on the date last run the year before. If easier you can again use Irishracing.com as detailed above. As might be expected there are far fewer instances of jockeys winning at least 3 times in the last 10 years. Whilst the data collected only covers one year at present the best performance seems to be coming from the Irish NH meetings - perhaps not surprising given that apart from weekends and bank holidays there are rarely more than one jumps meeting a day in Ireland. This website does not always record races prior to 2020 (lockdown year) for all races though!
DRAWFACTS: For flat races I assess the draw using the draw facts tables on the NMRC websites. I record different results for handicaps and non handicaps on the basis that handicaps should be more prone to slight advantages, such as a good/bad draw. I assess based upon both the number of stalls used in the race (adjusting for non runners if they were due to occupy the highest stall used) and also the overall totals seen in the last 10 years. The eagle eyed racing followers will note that if non runners are declared early enough then the stall number is removed and all numbers moved across one place. Without viewing every race it is impossible to take this into account hence the original draw details as published in the race cards is used for the data collection. I use shorthand symbols in the tables and when recording the data on my daily newspaper to keep things simple as follows:
X - I use this symbol when based on the number of stalls used the best stall record is at least double to average shown in the table. Minimum of 3 wins seen in last ten years.
/ - I use this symbol when based upon the number of stalls used the best stall record is less than double the average shown in the table. Minimum of two wins seen in last ten years.
∆ - I use this symbol when based upon the overall percentage figure in the end right hand column the success rate is 15% or greater.
О - I use this symbol when based upon the overall percentage figure in the end right hand column the best stall rate is less than 15%.
NB For all the above it is possible for more than one stall to have the best record and for ∆ all stalls with 15% plus are recorded.
DOUBLE DRAWFACTS: Please refer to the 'drawfacts' system above. Simplistically this system is based upon coupling the best draw using X or / data with the best draw using ∆ or O data. Theoretically this should give a stronger draw influence factor. Data collection only started in Jan 2019 so it is early days.
COURSE AND TRAINER (IN FORM) - This system uses past course winners, but to reduce the huge number of past winners at most meetings, I also link this to in-form trainers. Most websites and daily papers will show a 'C' symbol to identify past course winners. My assessment of the trainers is based upon the Racing Post 'RTF' data where I look for a rating of 60% plus. On Racing Post race cards the trainer 'RTF' score is shown after the trainer's name. In the printed edition you will find tables for both UK & Ireland trainers for trainers scoring 60% or more.
TRAINER PAST WINS - This does not duplicate 'Trainer Traits' as it covers only trainers who have won the race once or twice in the last 10 years. Some papers such as the Daily Mirror will list trainers who have won a race at least twice before but to pick up all past winning trainers use of the Irishracing.com website may be easiest. As you may expect, some races can throw up several past winning trainers.
BEATEN FAVOURITES + SPOTFORM - Beaten favourites are usually easy to identify with the letters 'BF' shown in most newspapers. Again I try and whittle down the list so I also look to ensure the horse is still top rated in the ratings allocated by either a Daily Newspaper with form ratings or the Racing Post. As around 90% of other newspaper/website ratings will show the same top rated horse (even if a different score) it should be fairly safe to use these scores rather than a specific daily paper!!
BLINKERS (OR HOODS/VISORS) 1ST TIME - There are plenty of other items of headgear (cheek pieces, tongue straps etc) but to restrict numbers I concentrate on the headgear that is most likely to achieve a dramatic effect first time. When it works it can often provide long priced winners. However, there are plenty of poor horses out there where this has very little, if any, impact so don't expect numerous winners from this system - but when it clicks the odds should be rewarding! Most papers and websites will use the symbols b1, v1 or h1 when a horse has this headgear for the first time. Quite why some tracks have better results than others is not entirely clear.
365 DAYS+ SINCE LAST RUN - Horses that have been off the track for at least a year, often after an injury, can often run above expectations as they are so 'fresh' and many of their rivals may have experienced tough races recently and are not yet fully recovered. For this category I always use days since last run in the same sphere (either flat or jumps). I always ignore point to point runs in this assessment. Some papers/websites will not distinguish what sort of race a horse last ran in - merely showing a number of days since last run - so some extra checking may be required. The Racing Post race cards are probably the most reliable as these will show more than one number after the horses name if it has been running under different codes.
OVERSEAS RUNNERS: This system was started in 2019. Irish runners are frequently seen in the UK but from other countries less so. The data is split as two categories being Irish trained horses and the rest of the world (mainly flat racing). For the Irish race tracks any UK runners there are detailed under the 'Irish' column to keep things simpler. Occasionally some international meetings are covered such as the Breeders Cup. In these columns the Irish Runners are treated the same and in the other column runners from the UK and other countries (except the host nation) are shown. Following 'Brexit' the number of overseas runners has reduced.
WIND OPERATIONS: Details of horses running for the first time after a wind operation are now fairly easy to find in many UK newspapers but the Racing Post is the best source of information to find horses having their second run after the operation. In the Racing Post they use a W1 or W2 symbol. This data has only been collected since Jan 2019. Irish cards do not flag up these runners at the present time although if their first race after the operation was in the UK then their second race 'post op' should be highlighted in the Racing Post.
DAYS LAST RAN: This system was created to try and establish the best race patterns for the bigger races during the year. With trainers often reluctant to publicly reveal race plans to the media this system will help identify race patterns of many key races. The data also includes smaller races as well. The website data will usually say 'last ran 'X' days ago' and finished in position 'Y'. If the horses last ran in a specific race then this will also be highlighted. Details of these races can be found on the 'Days Last Ran' data which is uploaded to the members only section of the club website on a rolling two monthly basis.
PAST WINNERS - It is not unreasonable for punters to assume that past winners of races that are entered again in following years are being 'laid out' for the race. So from Jan 2020 I have started to record figures to see if this is a profitable 'winner finder' or not. I have not separated graded races from handicaps but I have separated those on the same/lower weight carried when winning from those carrying a higher weight than when winning previously. This is purely based on actual weight carried rather than the past/current handicap rating. For stakes races (post return from the initial Covid-19 lockdown) some races have been adjusted to allow jockeys to carry an extra 2lbs. Where this is the case the stats assume that the same weight is being carried (rather than the weight being higher due to added penalties for winning races).
LONGEST MAINLAND TRAVELLERS (NEW FOR 2023) - It is often emphasised in the media that long distance travellers must be worth following given the high transport costs involved, so I decided to test out this theory. I have omitted 'overseas' runners from this section as these are measured separately already. What I do include are the longest travellers in mainland UK or mainland Ireland. Whilst there are five years statistics available, for 2019 & 2020 I often only had access to the longest traveller 'of the day' rather than for each meeting. Indeed it was only last year that I found reliable information for the Irish races - where their longest travellers are often half the mileage see on the UK mainland. So, in fairness, the 2021 results onwards are the most reliable. Many national newspapers may carry this information but the 'signposts' section of the Racing Post (printed/online) will definitely have these details. For some meetings there may be several horses that have travelled from the same location and if others are just a mile or two shorter journeys those will be added as well.
* In 2024 an extra column has been added to measure the results for the longest travellers who are also 'spot formed' in the racing press.
DIVIDED RACES DRAW (NEW FOR 2024) - Something I have noticed now and again is that for divided races the same stall will win both races. Statistically this is bound to happen sometimes but does it happen often enough to be a betting pointer? The data will be trialled in 2024 and during the year I hope to 'back track' results over the last four years as well to 'beef up' the statistics. If there is a viable system here it will be necessary to check the 'Division 1' result first before assessing 'Division 2' of the race.
Most racing followers will generally love or loathe the idea of following systems rather than a pure study of the horses past form, breeding etc.
My interest in systems goes back a long way, but essentially I have looked at factors which have affected results from what we would expect on pure form. Draw, first time blinkers, beaten favourites, course winners etc. Both UK & Irish racing is covered.
My top tip for anyone who wishes to follow any system is to record the results in an easy to follow format so you can clearly see if it is working or not for you. I have only seriously done that for the last ten years and aim to keep my statistics on a five year rolling basis in future.
The system results are recorded on a spreadsheet, using a level stake profit basis, based on SP's. By using 'Best Odds Guarantees' we should all be able to improve on this. I use 'open office' spread sheets and the operating programme for these can be downloaded free here.
Looking at the spreadsheets initially you may think 'this is rubbish' as there are loads of negative numbers in the columns (red column is always the grand total). What we must remember is that bookies take around a 15% profit margin so just breaking even is a positive. However, I recommend that users only follow the strong positive results in the tables - this should limit backable options to only a handful on most days. If you dip into a system infrequently you can be either very lucky or very unlucky as these results assume a 365 days a year cycle. As always only bet what you can afford to lose!
I shall continue to upload the updated spreadsheets monthly in 2024. Each system has its own tab and I shall briefly summarise how to use below (moving from left to right on the tabs):
LUCKY STALLS - One of the more frivolous systems! Where a race has been won at least 3 times by the same stall in the last 10 years. You will probably want to use a racing website that easily identifies past winning stalls - if you don't already have one I would recommend Irishracing.com Click on cards, select a race time, then scroll down to the bottom of the page for past results of the race you have selected. This website does not always record UK races prior to 2020 (lockdown year) for all races though!
TRAINER TRAITS - Please use the N&M Racing Club Trainer Traits web page for details of races where trainers have won at least 3 times in the last 10 years. Remember the Trainer Traits data is recorded on the date last run the year before. If easier you can again use Irishracing.com as detailed above. At some big meetings, such as Cheltenham, this system can throw up poor results. This is often because the top trainers can have multiple entries so even if they get a winner they can still show a level stake loss in the race. This website does not always record races prior to 2020 (lockdown year) for all races though!
JOCKEY TRAITS - Please use the N&M Racing Club Jockey Traits web page for details of races where jockeys have won at least 3 times in the last 10 years. Remember the Jockey Traits data is recorded on the date last run the year before. If easier you can again use Irishracing.com as detailed above. As might be expected there are far fewer instances of jockeys winning at least 3 times in the last 10 years. Whilst the data collected only covers one year at present the best performance seems to be coming from the Irish NH meetings - perhaps not surprising given that apart from weekends and bank holidays there are rarely more than one jumps meeting a day in Ireland. This website does not always record races prior to 2020 (lockdown year) for all races though!
DRAWFACTS: For flat races I assess the draw using the draw facts tables on the NMRC websites. I record different results for handicaps and non handicaps on the basis that handicaps should be more prone to slight advantages, such as a good/bad draw. I assess based upon both the number of stalls used in the race (adjusting for non runners if they were due to occupy the highest stall used) and also the overall totals seen in the last 10 years. The eagle eyed racing followers will note that if non runners are declared early enough then the stall number is removed and all numbers moved across one place. Without viewing every race it is impossible to take this into account hence the original draw details as published in the race cards is used for the data collection. I use shorthand symbols in the tables and when recording the data on my daily newspaper to keep things simple as follows:
X - I use this symbol when based on the number of stalls used the best stall record is at least double to average shown in the table. Minimum of 3 wins seen in last ten years.
/ - I use this symbol when based upon the number of stalls used the best stall record is less than double the average shown in the table. Minimum of two wins seen in last ten years.
∆ - I use this symbol when based upon the overall percentage figure in the end right hand column the success rate is 15% or greater.
О - I use this symbol when based upon the overall percentage figure in the end right hand column the best stall rate is less than 15%.
NB For all the above it is possible for more than one stall to have the best record and for ∆ all stalls with 15% plus are recorded.
DOUBLE DRAWFACTS: Please refer to the 'drawfacts' system above. Simplistically this system is based upon coupling the best draw using X or / data with the best draw using ∆ or O data. Theoretically this should give a stronger draw influence factor. Data collection only started in Jan 2019 so it is early days.
COURSE AND TRAINER (IN FORM) - This system uses past course winners, but to reduce the huge number of past winners at most meetings, I also link this to in-form trainers. Most websites and daily papers will show a 'C' symbol to identify past course winners. My assessment of the trainers is based upon the Racing Post 'RTF' data where I look for a rating of 60% plus. On Racing Post race cards the trainer 'RTF' score is shown after the trainer's name. In the printed edition you will find tables for both UK & Ireland trainers for trainers scoring 60% or more.
TRAINER PAST WINS - This does not duplicate 'Trainer Traits' as it covers only trainers who have won the race once or twice in the last 10 years. Some papers such as the Daily Mirror will list trainers who have won a race at least twice before but to pick up all past winning trainers use of the Irishracing.com website may be easiest. As you may expect, some races can throw up several past winning trainers.
BEATEN FAVOURITES + SPOTFORM - Beaten favourites are usually easy to identify with the letters 'BF' shown in most newspapers. Again I try and whittle down the list so I also look to ensure the horse is still top rated in the ratings allocated by either a Daily Newspaper with form ratings or the Racing Post. As around 90% of other newspaper/website ratings will show the same top rated horse (even if a different score) it should be fairly safe to use these scores rather than a specific daily paper!!
BLINKERS (OR HOODS/VISORS) 1ST TIME - There are plenty of other items of headgear (cheek pieces, tongue straps etc) but to restrict numbers I concentrate on the headgear that is most likely to achieve a dramatic effect first time. When it works it can often provide long priced winners. However, there are plenty of poor horses out there where this has very little, if any, impact so don't expect numerous winners from this system - but when it clicks the odds should be rewarding! Most papers and websites will use the symbols b1, v1 or h1 when a horse has this headgear for the first time. Quite why some tracks have better results than others is not entirely clear.
365 DAYS+ SINCE LAST RUN - Horses that have been off the track for at least a year, often after an injury, can often run above expectations as they are so 'fresh' and many of their rivals may have experienced tough races recently and are not yet fully recovered. For this category I always use days since last run in the same sphere (either flat or jumps). I always ignore point to point runs in this assessment. Some papers/websites will not distinguish what sort of race a horse last ran in - merely showing a number of days since last run - so some extra checking may be required. The Racing Post race cards are probably the most reliable as these will show more than one number after the horses name if it has been running under different codes.
OVERSEAS RUNNERS: This system was started in 2019. Irish runners are frequently seen in the UK but from other countries less so. The data is split as two categories being Irish trained horses and the rest of the world (mainly flat racing). For the Irish race tracks any UK runners there are detailed under the 'Irish' column to keep things simpler. Occasionally some international meetings are covered such as the Breeders Cup. In these columns the Irish Runners are treated the same and in the other column runners from the UK and other countries (except the host nation) are shown. Following 'Brexit' the number of overseas runners has reduced.
WIND OPERATIONS: Details of horses running for the first time after a wind operation are now fairly easy to find in many UK newspapers but the Racing Post is the best source of information to find horses having their second run after the operation. In the Racing Post they use a W1 or W2 symbol. This data has only been collected since Jan 2019. Irish cards do not flag up these runners at the present time although if their first race after the operation was in the UK then their second race 'post op' should be highlighted in the Racing Post.
DAYS LAST RAN: This system was created to try and establish the best race patterns for the bigger races during the year. With trainers often reluctant to publicly reveal race plans to the media this system will help identify race patterns of many key races. The data also includes smaller races as well. The website data will usually say 'last ran 'X' days ago' and finished in position 'Y'. If the horses last ran in a specific race then this will also be highlighted. Details of these races can be found on the 'Days Last Ran' data which is uploaded to the members only section of the club website on a rolling two monthly basis.
PAST WINNERS - It is not unreasonable for punters to assume that past winners of races that are entered again in following years are being 'laid out' for the race. So from Jan 2020 I have started to record figures to see if this is a profitable 'winner finder' or not. I have not separated graded races from handicaps but I have separated those on the same/lower weight carried when winning from those carrying a higher weight than when winning previously. This is purely based on actual weight carried rather than the past/current handicap rating. For stakes races (post return from the initial Covid-19 lockdown) some races have been adjusted to allow jockeys to carry an extra 2lbs. Where this is the case the stats assume that the same weight is being carried (rather than the weight being higher due to added penalties for winning races).
LONGEST MAINLAND TRAVELLERS (NEW FOR 2023) - It is often emphasised in the media that long distance travellers must be worth following given the high transport costs involved, so I decided to test out this theory. I have omitted 'overseas' runners from this section as these are measured separately already. What I do include are the longest travellers in mainland UK or mainland Ireland. Whilst there are five years statistics available, for 2019 & 2020 I often only had access to the longest traveller 'of the day' rather than for each meeting. Indeed it was only last year that I found reliable information for the Irish races - where their longest travellers are often half the mileage see on the UK mainland. So, in fairness, the 2021 results onwards are the most reliable. Many national newspapers may carry this information but the 'signposts' section of the Racing Post (printed/online) will definitely have these details. For some meetings there may be several horses that have travelled from the same location and if others are just a mile or two shorter journeys those will be added as well.
* In 2024 an extra column has been added to measure the results for the longest travellers who are also 'spot formed' in the racing press.
DIVIDED RACES DRAW (NEW FOR 2024) - Something I have noticed now and again is that for divided races the same stall will win both races. Statistically this is bound to happen sometimes but does it happen often enough to be a betting pointer? The data will be trialled in 2024 and during the year I hope to 'back track' results over the last four years as well to 'beef up' the statistics. If there is a viable system here it will be necessary to check the 'Division 1' result first before assessing 'Division 2' of the race.
